The following analysis is based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015
A pdf version is available here and here
Summary
Fossil fuel consumption is
increasing in all the developing regions of the world and outstripping reductions
made by the developed world. It makes the prospect of climate change agreement
at the December COP impossible to contemplate.
It is already well documented
that the explosive increase in fossil fuel consumption across the developing
world, in particular China, reflects the shift in manufacturing to these
regions. This is especially so with products and services requiring steel and
cement production which are unavoidably carbon intensive. This was initially
reflected in exponentially expanding coal consumption. Now that Chinese coal
consumption has leveled out, oil consumption is now expanding exponentially
reflecting China’s transition into its next phase of destructive growth.
Today’s globalised economy interconnects
national economies such that the wealth of one country is dependent on the
wealth that others can create for it. In this environment prothletising about individual
national successes in achieving carbon reductions is irrelevant. What is needed is far more profound efforts
to jointly reduce emissions. This can only be done with joint sacrifices.
The growth of renewables is stalling.
It is concerning that this is happening when it still constitutes such a small
percentage (1.81%) of the total global fossil fuel energy production. It severely
challenges the arguments that are being put forward at the COP conferences that
renewable technologies will provide the key to a zero carbon economy.
There is no evidence to
substantiate the claim that developing economies will take up new low carbon
technologies in such a significant way that they will leap-frog the fossil fuel
consumption stage of past industrialised economies.
Given the severe state of climate
change as measured by the Arctic ice cap melting and atmospheric CO2 already
exceeding 400ppm, these figures demonstrate that unless we radically change our
approach we will be unable to avoid the total collapse of our ecosystem and our
extinction.
This set of data brings the
concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) that formed the basis of the Cold
War into a new and more brutal focus. Unless we can all agree on an immediate
and significant reduction in CO2 emissions along with restoration of our
ecosystem and successful geo engineering, then MAD is our fate.
Basis of Data
This report is based entirely on the 2015 BP Statistics
Review, which covers trends to 2014. All energy production and consumption is
broken down into Millions of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (MTOE) for easy
comparison. There will inevitably be errors with this conversion factor, however
it still provides a useful comparison for overall trends.
Global Fossil Fuel Consumption
Global fossil fuel consumption
continues to grow, albeit the rate of growth has slowed slightly.
Despite
the hype of renewables, it has not translated into a reduction in fossil fuels.
The only time this has happened over the last 40 years was during the global
recessions of 1980 and 2009. By way of
comparison, in 2009 fossil fuel consumption fell by 196 MTOE compared with an
increase of 60 MTOE between 2013 and 2014.
Consumption is now 5 times higher
than in 1965. From atmospheric CO2 measurements taken at Manu Loa since 1958,
which have always shown an increasing trend, it is known that even 1965 levels
were not sustainable in the long term.
The
extreme emissions of today are happening when the sequestration ability of the
planet has been heavily compromised due to the impact of past damage and global
heating. As such, rapid rises of atmospheric CO2 are to be expected in the very
short term.
Today’s increase is being driven and
sustained by economic growth in the Asia Pacific region.
Global Coal Consumption
Following the extraordinary
expansion of coal consumption from 2000 to 2010, it is now either plateauing or
returning to the previous levels of growth of the 1970s. It is not possible to
determine which, other than to observe that global coal consumption grew by 15
MTOE last year.
Much has been made recently of China’s
reduction in coal consumption; however reductions in growth have been more than
offset by rises in Indian coal consumption. If India follows the pattern of China,
its coal consumption could rise considerably and rapidly and then take many
years to reduce back to zero.
Despite progress being made in
China on renewables, declining from the current level of coal consumption will
take too long to avoid runaway climate change.
It is of note that Pakistan and Bangladesh coal consumption
is not even visible on the chart, despite these nations once being part of India
and having substantial populations.
Oil Consumption
Despite
oil consumption declining in North America and Europe, it has risen in every
other region of the world; in particular the Asian Pacific region. These rises have
negated all the savings made in the developed world.
Gas
As
with oil and coal, gas consumption has risen in all regions of the world, with
the exception of Europe.
Renewables
All
developed nations are betting on an effective roll out of renewables as the
primary basis of their climate change response at the COP talks. Despite the
efforts over recent years, solar and wind still only produce 1.81% of the
energy delivered by fossil fuels.
Most concerning is that the rate
of increase has shown its first signs of slowing by quite clearly coming off
the exponential trajectory that it was previously on.
This data provides a strong
warning that the concept that renewables can be rapidly expanded globally to replace
fossil fuels is potentially flawed and that it is already approaching its
limits.
The other main source of
renewables is hydro. Globally this has shown a steady increase which on break
down is seen to be largely driven by China whose hydro consumption has risen to
about 250 MTOE, or about 30% of the global total. This has been achieved by
damming every river that drains the Tibetan plateau at much financial cost and
with a corresponding increase in international tension with its
neighbours. The others area of growth
has been South America with the construction of dams on the tributaries to the
Amazon. Both of these energy sources are likely to be challenged as climate
change melts the Tibetan ice sheets and disrupts Amazonian rainfall. Consequently,
there is not much scope for further growth and even maintaining this level will
is likely to be impossible in the long term.
It
is of note that in hydro is currently generating about 4 times that of wind and
solar and a global loss of this energy source could negate much of the gains
from wind and solar.
